The smoke from the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a violent chemical reaction in the global manufacturing chain. On one hand, there is the “cost tsunami” caused by the interruption of electrolytic aluminum supply, and on the other hand, there is the “substitution dividend” driven by the breakthrough of crude oil. When aluminum prices may hit a historical high of $4000/ton and soaring oil prices make electric vehicles a safe haven, the new energy vehicle market in 2026 is standing at an unprecedented crossroads: the cost side is “bleeding” and the demand side is “partying”. Who will foot the bill at the end of this game?
1. Aluminum artery rupture: a delayed ‘supply shock’
If oil is the lifeblood of modern industry, then “aluminum” is the lightweight skeleton. At this moment, the ‘artery’ of this skeleton, the Strait of Hormuz is facing the risk of being completely severed.
Guangfa Futures analyst Wang Yiwen’s warning is not an exaggeration. As the situation in the Middle East escalates, countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Iran, which are highly dependent on imported alumina, may be forced to follow suit and reduce production in the next two to three weeks. This is not just a short-term shutdown, but also an irreversible supply shock.
Time lag: Once the electrolytic aluminum tank is shut down, the restart cycle can take up to 6-12 months. This means that even if peace comes next week, the global aluminum supply gap in 2026 is already a foregone conclusion.
Gap magnitude: Overseas supply may turn into negative growth, and the global supply demand gap may instantly expand to the million ton level.
The price ceiling has been pierced: if force majeure erupts, the LME aluminum price shock of $3700~$4000 per ton is no longer a fantasy, but a highly probable reality.
For the manufacturing industry, this is not only a digital leap, but also a cost reshaping of real gold and silver.
2. New energy vehicles: cost constrained by “aluminum” and demand driven by “oil”
In this storm, the new energy vehicle industry has become the most contradictory collective: it is both the biggest victim of rising aluminum prices and the biggest beneficiary of soaring oil prices.
1. Cost side: Each vehicle carries an additional 760 yuan of “war tax”
The obsession with lightweighting in new energy vehicles has made them a major consumer of aluminum. Data shows that pure electric new energy vehicles use an average of over 200 kilograms of aluminum per vehicle, almost twice that of traditional fuel vehicles. Aluminum alloy is widely distributed in vehicle body structures, battery casings, wheel hubs, and thermal management systems.
Let’s calculate an account:
If calculated based on the recent increase of 3800 yuan/ton in aluminum prices compared to the average price in 2025, for every pure electric vehicle produced, the cost of raw materials alone will directly increase by about 760 yuan.
For car companies with annual sales of one million vehicles, this means an additional cost expenditure of nearly 800 million yuan.
For small and medium-sized car companies with meager profits, this 760 yuan may be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back, directly squeezing their already narrow living space and even triggering a supply chain delivery crisis.
2. Demand side: “Passive transformation” brought about by oil prices breaking through 100%
However, the other side of the market is hot. Brent crude oil has surpassed $110 per barrel, and the fluctuating numbers at gas stations have become the best billboards for electric vehicles.
Scenes are unfolding from Manila to Hanoi:
Manila, Philippines: Matthew Dominique Poh, a sales representative at a BYD dealership, stated that the order volume over the past two weeks is equivalent to that of the past month. Customers are replacing gasoline cars with electric ones, “he said.” Oil prices are too expensive
Hanoi, Vietnam: Customer visits to VinFast showroom have tripled. Within three weeks after the conflict broke out, the store sold 250 electric vehicles, with an average weekly sales of over 80 vehicles, which is twice the average level in 2025.
Albert Park, Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank, pointed out sharply: “Rising oil prices have always been beneficial for the transition towards electric vehicles. It can create economic incentives to accelerate this green transformation
This is the current magical reality: consumers buy electric vehicles because they are afraid of high fuel prices, but car companies are worried about the high cost of aluminum used in making electric vehicles.
3. Deep Game: Will a Price Rise Wave Come?
Faced with the dual pressure of “cost surge” and “sales surge”, will new energy vehicles increase in price? The answer may not be a simple ‘yes’ or’ no ‘, but rather a differentiated structural adjustment.
1. High end brands: Transfer costs and maintain premium prices
For top car companies with strong brand moats and pricing power (such as Tesla, BYD high-end series, luxury brands), the cost increase of 760 yuan can be fully absorbed by adjusting the selling price or optimizing the configuration. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, consumers are less sensitive to the price of a few thousand yuan and place greater emphasis on the total cost of ownership (TCO) throughout the entire lifecycle. Price increases may be overshadowed by strong demand.
2. Mid to low end and new forces: profit pressure, life and death reshuffle
For small and medium-sized car companies that focus on cost-effectiveness and rely on small profits for quick sales, the situation is extremely severe. They neither have enough bargaining power to pressure upstream aluminum plants, nor dare to easily raise prices to scare away price sensitive customers.
Ending A: Sacrificing profits and bearing costs, leading to deteriorating financial reports and difficulties in financing.
Outcome B: Cutting corners and reducing aluminum usage, but this may affect vehicle safety and range, and damage brand reputation.
Ending C: Forced to be eliminated. This round of “aluminum price+oil price” two-way squeeze is likely to accelerate industry reshuffle and eliminate a group of players with weak risk resistance ability.
3. The ‘East is not bright, the West is bright’ in the industrial chain
It is worth noting that although the manufacturing cost of complete vehicles has increased, upstream aluminum companies and integrated car companies with their own aluminum sources will benefit greatly. Enterprises that have mines overseas and complete industrial chains domestically will seize excess profits in this crisis, further widening the gap with competitors.
4. Conclusion: The ‘accelerator key’ in crisis
The artillery fire in the Middle East unexpectedly pressed the “accelerator button” for the global energy transition.
Although the soaring price of aluminum has brought pain to the manufacturing industry and may even trigger short-term inflation fluctuations and the closure of individual enterprises, from a macro perspective, the high fossil energy prices are forcefully correcting humanity’s dependence on traditional energy with unprecedented force.
The cost increase of 760 yuan is painful, but when the numbers at gas stations make people hesitate, this account already has an answer in the minds of consumers. For the new energy vehicle industry, this may be a “bone scraping therapy”:
In the short term, it is a fierce game of cost and profit;
In the long run, it is a catalyst for increasing industry concentration and technological iteration (such as higher strength heat free aluminum alloys and integrated die-casting technology to reduce unit aluminum costs).
Post time: Mar-26-2026