Shanghai futures price trend: The main monthly 2511 contract for aluminum alloy casting today opened high and strengthened. As of 3:00 pm on the same day, the main contract for aluminum casting was reported at 19845 yuan, up 35 yuan, or 0.18%. The daily trading volume was 1825 lots, a decrease of 160 lots; The position of 8279 lots decreased by 114 lots.
According to data from Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network, on July 17th, Changjiang spot data showed that the quoted price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was 21200-21600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21400 yuan/ton unchanged.
The quotation for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A380) is between 21100-21300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21200 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged.
The quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 ranges from 20000 to 20200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged.
The quotation for casting aluminum alloy ingots (ZL102) is 20700-20900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20800 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged.
The quotation for casting aluminum alloy ingots (ZLD104) is 20700-20900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20800 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged.
Analysis of the CCMN Casting Aluminum Alloy Market:
Macro: Recently, some economic data in China have shown positive performance, boosting expectations for metal demand. The US CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in June (exceeding expectations by 2.6%), which may indicate the preliminary transmission effect of tariff policies on inflation, driving the strength of the US dollar index.
However, the interest rate swap market shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September still reaches 62%, and there are nearly two cumulative interest rate cuts expected before the end of the year, supporting market risk appetite. Previously, Trump denied the plan to dismiss Powell and refuted related reports, stabilizing market volatility and causing aluminum futures to fluctuate upwards.
Fundamental: The current market performance is weak, and the price trend of aluminum alloys is still mainly dominated by aluminum prices. In the spot market, buyers and sellers are in a stalemate, with prices from holders remaining firm and little room for concessions.
Downstream buyers have a strong wait-and-see attitude, cautious entry, and light trading throughout the day. The traditional off-season effect continued to ferment in July, and the operating rate of downstream automotive parts die-casting enterprises further declined – although new energy vehicle manufacturers maintained high production, the production of traditional fuel vehicles decreased significantly, which dragged down the demand for aluminum alloys.
The production of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has synchronously declined, while the consumer side has shown even weaker performance, leading to the continuous accumulation of social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots. In terms of cost, as the price of scrap aluminum falls, the production cost of enterprises has decreased.
Overall, the short-term fundamentals are showing a weakening trend, and aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue to follow the fluctuations of aluminum prices.
Post time: Jul-17-2025