Industry data for November 2025 reveals a nuanced picture of China’s alumina sector, characterized by marginal production adjustments and a persistent supply surplus.
According to statistics from BaiChuan YingFu, China’s output of metallurgical-grade alumina reached 7.495 million metric tons in November 2025, marking a 4.96% year-on-year increase. However, the average daily production stood at 249,800 tons, a slight decrease of 400 tons per day compared to October’s 250,200 tons. This sequential dip resulted in a modest month-on-month contraction in overall supply.
The reduction in daily output is attributed to several operational factors. A major refinery in Shanxi province underwent equipment maintenance, temporarily idling 400,000 tons of annual production capacity. Concurrently, several other producers conducted planned maintenance on their calcination units, partly driven by environmental compliance considerations. The fewer number of days in November also contributed to the lower monthly output volume.
Despite reports of squeezed margins pushing some refiners into a loss making position, widespread voluntary production cuts remain limited. Industry analysts note that the fulfillment of long-term supply contracts (long term orders) is a primary factor discouraging significant output reductions. Looking ahead, as annual contract negotiations progress, some pressure to curtail production may emerge. Furthermore, production in northern regions is subject to seasonal environmental controls during the winter heating period, which may lead to phased reductions in calciner activity. However, analysts expect any output cuts to be gradual, offering limited support to alumina prices. Elevated inventory levels across the industry further suppress any substantial upward price momentum. Projections for December 2025 indicate a continuation of this trend, with estimated domestic alumina output of approximately 7.7 million tons, reflecting a marginal daily decrease from November levels.
Sustained Supply Surplus in Supply-Demand Balance
The November supply-demand calculus confirms a continued oversupplied market. With domestic production at 7.495 million tons and imports (calculated on actual arrival) adding 179,500 tons, total supply was partially offset by exports (calculated on departure) of 165,500 tons and approximately 190,000 tons allocated for non-metallurgical uses. Against this, domestic primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production for November was recorded at 3.6597 million tons. Applying a standard industry consumption ratio of 1.93 tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, the monthly calculation results in a supply surplus of 255,800 tons for November.
The surplus condition is forecasted to persist into December, albeit at a potentially narrower margin. Preliminary estimates project a domestic alumina output of 7.7 million tons, non-aluminum usage of 180,000 tons, imports of 162,000 tons, and exports of 210,000 tons. With primary aluminum output expected to rise to around 3.785 million tons, the projected surplus for December 2025 is estimated at 167,000 tons.
Post time: Dec-15-2025