Since October, the global aluminum market has experienced a significant warming, with London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum futures prices rising by over 6%, successfully reaching their highest level in nearly three years. This fundamental material, once regarded as a “civilian metal” in the industrial sector, is redefining its strategic value through multiple advantages in the wave of energy transformation.
The explosive growth of the new energy industry has become one of the core driving forces behind the rise in aluminum prices. Data shows that the demand for aluminum in fields such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and ultra-high voltage is continuously increasing. In 2024, the aluminum consumption of new energy vehicles increased by 18% year-on-year, and the aluminum consumption per vehicle has reached 250 kilograms. It is expected that after the production of new energy vehicles exceeds 12 million units in 2025, the annual aluminum consumption will increase to 3 million tons; The photovoltaic field also performed well, with an additional 216 million kilowatts of installed capacity in 2024, and the aluminum consumption per GW of photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 10000 tons. Coupled with the 9.1% increase in aluminum cable demand driven by investment in the ultra-high voltage power grid, strong demand support has been formed.
The demand for substitution in the context of high copper prices has further expanded the market space for aluminum. With the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand of copper resources, aluminum materials are becoming an important alternative to copper in the fields of power transmission, distribution, and industrial applications due to their improved performance and cost advantages. The relevant industry plan jointly released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and 11 other departments has established the strategic path of “saving copper with aluminum”, and domestic enterprises have achieved technological breakthroughs and industrialization landing. The copper aluminum composite material developed by Ruotai Fuxinda can save about 40% of copper resources and reduce costs by 35%. The solid-phase composite technology equipment of Anhui Wanyu Technology is applied to new energy vehicle enterprises, which can achieve a weight reduction of 20% and reduce energy consumption by 30% -50% compared to traditional processes.
The resource reserves and supply chain advantages further enhance the strategic value of aluminum. The global proven reserves of bauxite are about 29.1 billion tons. Although China’s dependence on bauxite imports exceeds 50%, it has established a complete aluminum industry system with 60.41% of the world’s primary aluminum production (reaching 43.385 million tons in 2024). The entire industry chain capacity from alumina, electrolytic aluminum to aluminum processing materials ranks first in the world. More noteworthy is that aluminum has significant advantages in recycling, with energy consumption for recycled aluminum being only 5% -8% of that of primary aluminum, far lower than the 20% for copper recycling. This green attribute is highly in line with the global “dual carbon” strategy.
Industry insiders are generally optimistic about the long-term trend of aluminum prices. From the perspective of market supply and demand pattern, the global aluminum market is shifting from long-term surplus to supply shortage. China’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy red line of 45 million tons, while overseas production capacity is constrained by factors such as high energy costs and insufficient investment, resulting in weak growth. Citigroup predicts that aluminum prices are expected to exceed $3000 per ton in the next five years, achieving a significant increase from the current level. The irreplaceability of aluminum in the field of new energy continues to strengthen, coupled with the advantage of supply chain stability, it is expected that aluminum prices will remain high and gradually rise, and its strategic metal positioning will become more prominent, “said an industry analyst.
With the deepening of energy transformation, the role of aluminum in the global industrial system is upgrading from basic materials to key strategic materials, and this value reshaping may continue to rewrite the pattern of the global non-ferrous metal market.
Post time: Oct-31-2025