Recently, Guinea International Company (GIC), a subsidiary wholly controlled by Guinea, obtained formal authorization from the country’s Ministry of Mines and Geology to restart bauxite mining and export activities in the Bofal and Fria regions. This resumption marks a crucial turning point in the controversy affecting Guinea’s domestic mining industry. Although the authorization is a “temporary” arrangement, the simultaneous implementation of a new royalty model has injected new changes into the country’s mineral resource management and export landscape.
According to informed sources, the AGB2A-GIC mining area has been successfully resuming operations for five days now, with various mining activities gradually resuming and progressing in an orderly manner. The current core focus is on the scheduling and arrangement of export ships to clear the inventory accumulated during the downtime. Data shows that before the resumption of production, nearly six million tons of bauxite had accumulated in the mining area. With the arrival of ships, this inventory will gradually enter the global supply chain, potentially alleviating the regional tight supply of bauxite in the short term.
It is noteworthy that the resumption of mining operations this time is an important implementation measure of the Guinean government’s new mining royalty model. According to the new regulations, the Guinean government will directly collect royalties from AGB2A-GIC and its competitors operating in the other half of the mining area in the region, replacing the previous indirect charging model. Industry analysts believe that this adjustment can not only effectively increase the public fiscal revenue of the Guinean government, but also enhance the transparency of natural resource development and management. It is a crucial step for the country to optimize the allocation of mineral resources and strengthen resource sovereignty.
As the world’s largest exporter of bauxite, Guinea accounts for 74.4% of global bauxite exports. China, as the world’s largest importer of bauxite, sources 45% of its imports from Guinea, and its supply fluctuations directly affect the global aluminum industry chain. The resumption of production by GIC serves as an important supplement to the global bauxite supply side. Previously, Guinea revoked the mining licenses of several foreign mining companies due to the promotion of resource nationalism policies, leading to fluctuations in bauxite exports. The resumption of production by GIC is expected to alleviate market concerns about the stability of Guinea’s supply.
In terms of production capacity planning, GIC originally set a clear expansion target, planning to increase the annual production capacity of bauxite mines in Bofal and Fria regions from 10 million tons to 15 million tons by 2025, and even aim for 18 million tons. However, due to the impact of the recent shutdown, the aforementioned production capacity expansion target will be postponed to 2026. According to estimates by institutions, if GIC’s expansion target is successfully achieved in 2026, coupled with the newly added production capacity from other mining areas in Guinea, the annual export volume of bauxite from the country is expected to increase by 25 million tons, further consolidating its core position in global supply.
However, the market still needs to pay attention to multiple uncertainties. On the one hand, the authorization for GIC to resume production is “temporary”, and the continuity and enforcement of subsequent policies remain to be observed. On the other hand, Guinea has frequently adjusted its resource policies in recent years. Since 2021, there have been multiple adjustments to the equity ratio requirements for mining enterprises and the revocation of mining licenses, posing certain policy risks to mining enterprises’ operations. In addition, the newly added production capacity of bauxite globally will be released in a concentrated manner in 2026. If the demand side fails to follow up sufficiently, it may exacerbate the imbalance between market supply and demand.
Industry insiders indicate that the resumption of production by Guinea’s GIC Company will boost global bauxite supply expectations in the short term, exerting a certain degree of pressure on alumina production costs. In the medium to long term, the implementation effect of its new concession model, the progress of production capacity expansion, and the driving effect of the global new energy industry chain on aluminum demand will collectively determine the trend of the global bauxite and aluminum industry chain.
Post time: Jan-09-2026