China’s electrolytic aluminum sector sustained its unique “rising costs alongside expanding profits” trajectory in December 2025, defying conventional market dynamics as robust price gains outpaced production cost increments. According to calculations by Antaike, the weighted average total cost (including tax) of electrolytic aluminum reached 16,454 yuan per tonne last month, marking a month-on-month increase of 119 yuan or 0.7%, while dropping 4,192 yuan (20.3%) year-on-year.
The cost fluctuation reflects a nuanced interplay of input factors in the Hall-Héroult process supply chain. Anode and power costs emerged as the primary drivers of the monthly uptick. Anode prices surged to a near two-and-a-half-year high in December, fueled by heating season restrictions in major production hubs Shandong and Henan, coupled with rising raw material expenses for carbon anodes. Meanwhile, the comprehensive taxed electricity price for the aluminum smelting industry climbed 0.006 yuan per kilowatt-hour month-on-month to 0.423 yuan/kWh, underscoring persistent energy cost pressures.
This upward cost momentum was partially offset by declining alumina prices, a key feedstock accounting for a significant portion of production expenses. Antaike’s spot price data indicates alumina averaged 2,808 yuan per tonne during the December procurement period, falling 77 yuan (2.7%) from the previous month. For the full year 2025, China’s weighted average total cost of electrolytic aluminum stood at 16,722 yuan per tonne, a 5.6% decrease (995 yuan/tonne) compared to 2024, reflecting improved cost structure optimization across the sector.
Crucially, electrolytic aluminum prices rose at a faster pace than costs, driving substantial profit expansion. The average price of the Shanghai Aluminum continuous contract hit 22,101 yuan per tonne in December, advancing 556 yuan month-on-month. Antaike estimates the monthly average profit reached 5,647 yuan per tonne (before deducting value-added tax and corporate income tax, which vary by region), increasing 437 yuan from November and maintaining full-industry profitability. For 2025, the average annual profit per tonne of aluminum surged 80.8% year-on-year to approximately 4,028 yuan, an increment of 1,801 yuan per tonne.
This positive performance comes amid China’s ongoing capacity optimization and global supply-demand rebalancing. The sector’s ability to maintain healthy profit margins despite rising input costs bodes well for downstream aluminum processing segments, including aluminum sheets, bars, tubes, and custom machining services. As the industry navigates energy transition and environmental regulations, the stable cost-profit dynamics are expected to support consistent supply and quality improvement for high-value-added aluminum products in 2026.
Post time: Jan-12-2026