On April 29, 2025, the average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River spot market was reported at 20020 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum, 2506, closed at 19930 yuan/ton. Although it fluctuated narrowly in the night session, it still held the key support level of 19900 yuan during the day. Behind this upward trend is the resonance between the global explicit inventory falling to historical lows and the intensification of policy games:
LME aluminum inventory has dropped to 417575 tons, with less than a week of available days, and high energy costs in Europe (with natural gas prices rebounding to 35 euros/megawatt hour) are suppressing the progress of resuming production.
The social inventory of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 6.23% to 178597 tons per week. Due to the concentrated release of home appliance and automobile orders in the southern region, the spot premium exceeded 200 yuan/ton, and the Foshan warehouse had to queue for more than 3 days to pick up the goods.
Ⅰ. Driving Logic: Demand Resilience vs. Cost Collapse
1. The demand for new energy is taking the lead, and traditional sectors are experiencing marginal recovery
The final effect of the rush to install photovoltaics: In April, the production of photovoltaic modules increased by 17% month on month, and the demand for aluminum frames surged by 22% year-on-year. However, as the policy node approaches in May, some companies have overdrawn orders in advance.
Automobile lightweighting acceleration: The amount of aluminum used in new energy vehicles per vehicle has exceeded 350 kilograms, driving the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises to rise to 82%. However, in April, the growth rate of automobile sales slowed down to 12%, and the multiplier effect of the trade in policy weakened.
Bottom line of power grid orders: State Grid’s second batch of ultra-high voltage bidding for aluminum materials is 143000 tons, and aluminum cable enterprises are operating at full capacity, supporting aluminum pole production to maintain a five-year high.
2. On the cost side, there are two extremes: ice and fire
The pressure of excess alumina is evident: the resumption of production in Shanxi mines has pushed the price of bauxite back to $80/ton, the spot price of alumina has fallen below 2900 yuan/ton, the cost of electrolytic aluminum has dropped to 16500 yuan/ton, and the industry average profit has expanded to 3700 yuan/ton.
Green aluminum premium highlights: Yunnan hydropower aluminum ton cost is 2000 yuan lower than thermal power, and the gross profit margin of enterprises such as Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. exceeds the industry average by 5 percentage points, accelerating the clearance of thermal power production capacity.
Ⅱ. Macro game: Policy ‘double-edged sword’ tears apart market expectations
1. Domestic stable growth policies hedge against external demand risks
Centralized construction of infrastructure projects: The National Development and Reform Commission plans to issue a list of “dual” projects for the whole year before the end of June, which is expected to drive an increase of 500000 tons in aluminum consumption.
Expectations of loose monetary policy: The central bank has announced the “timely reduction of reserve requirement ratio and interest rates”, and the expectation of loose liquidity has stimulated the flow of funds into the commodity market.
2. Overseas’ black swan ‘threat escalation
Repeated US tariff policies: imposing a 70% tariff on aluminum products from China to suppress direct exports, indirectly affecting industrial chains such as home appliances and automotive parts. Static estimates show that aluminum exposure to the US is 2.3%.
Weak demand in Europe: The number of new car registrations in the EU in the first quarter decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the increase in production of Trimet in Germany suppressed the rebound space of London aluminum. The Shanghai London exchange rate rose to 8.3, and the import loss exceeded 1000 yuan/ton.
Ⅲ. Fund battle: main force divergence intensifies, sector rotation accelerates
Long short battle in futures market: Shanghai Aluminum’s main contract holdings decreased by 10393 lots per day, Yong’an Futures’ long positions decreased by 12000 lots, Guotai Jun’an’s short positions increased by 1800 lots, and the risk aversion sentiment of funds heated up.
The stock market has obvious differentiation: the aluminum concept sector rose by 1.05% in a single day, but China Aluminum Industry fell by 0.93%, while Nanshan Aluminum Industry rose by 5.76% against the trend, with funds concentrated in hydropower aluminum and high-end processing leaders.
Ⅳ. Outlook for the future: Pulse market under tight balance
Short term (1-2 months)
Strong price volatility: Supported by low inventory and post holiday replenishment demand, Shanghai Aluminum may test the pressure level of 20300 yuan, but caution should be exercised against the US dollar rebound caused by the delay of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.
Risk warning: The sudden change in Indonesia’s bauxite export policy and the delivery crisis caused by Russia’s aluminum sanctions may trigger the risk of forced warehousing.
Medium to long term (second half of 2025)
Normalization of tight balance: The global electrolytic aluminum production capacity increment is less than 1 million tons per year, and the demand for new energy is increasing by 800000 tons per year, making it difficult to bridge the gap.
Value reconstruction of the industrial chain: The utilization rate of recycled aluminum has exceeded 85%, and integrated die-casting technology has driven the processing gross profit to 20%. Enterprises with technological barriers will lead the next round of growth.
[The data in the article is sourced from the internet, and the views are for reference only and not used as investment basis]
Post time: May-06-2025