In the second quarter of 2026, China’s aluminum profile export order index rebounded for three consecutive months, reversing the sluggish trend of the first quarter. According to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to May 2026, the export volume of aluminum profiles in China was about 980000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. The export amount is about 4.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The main increase comes from the Southeast Asian market and the North American electric vehicle supply chain, which together contribute 72% of the export increase.
Southeast Asian Infrastructure Acceleration: New Growth Pole for Aluminum Profile Exports
The infrastructure investment scale of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to reach 210 billion US dollars in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The construction of the new capital of Indonesia, Nusantara, has entered a peak period, with a strong demand for aluminum consuming curtain walls, doors and windows, and transportation facilities. Vietnam and Thailand have accelerated their photovoltaic installation, with export orders for aluminum profiles used in photovoltaic frames increasing by over 40% year-on-year. The rail transit projects in Malaysia and the Philippines are intensively underway, and the procurement volume of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets has significantly increased. The Southeast Asian market has a high dependence on Chinese aluminum profiles, mainly due to insufficient aluminum processing capacity in the region to meet infrastructure needs, and Chinese products have significant competitive advantages in terms of cost effectiveness.
Countdown to EU carbon tariffs: cost pressure of approximately 80-120 euros per ton
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will enter the comprehensive implementation stage in 2026, and aluminum products will be included in the first batch of taxation scope. According to the European Commission’s calculations, the average carbon emission intensity of electrolytic aluminum in China is about 14.5 tons of CO₂/ton of aluminum, significantly higher than the 6 tons of CO₂/ton of aluminum produced by domestic hydroelectric aluminum in the EU. Based on the current EU carbon price of approximately 85 euros/ton of CO₂, exporting Chinese aluminum products to the EU will face a carbon cost of approximately 80~120 euros/ton, equivalent to approximately 620~930 yuan/ton in Chinese yuan. If this cost is fully transmitted, it will seriously weaken the price competitiveness of Chinese aluminum products in the European market. Some European buyers have started requesting suppliers to provide product carbon footprint certification, and the premium for low-carbon aluminum products is gradually becoming apparent.
Enterprise Breakthrough Path: Green, Low Carbon, and High End Development
Faced with carbon tariff pressure, domestic aluminum processing enterprises are accelerating the layout of green and low carbon production capacity. Yunnan, Sichuan and other southwestern regions rely on abundant hydropower resources to vigorously develop integrated hydropower aluminum projects. The carbon emission intensity of hydropower aluminum can be reduced to below 8 tons of CO₂/ton of aluminum, which is more than 45% lower than that of thermal power aluminum. In addition, the recycled aluminum industry has entered a development window period, with a carbon emission intensity of only about 1.5 tons of CO₂ per ton of aluminum, demonstrating significant low carbon advantages. In the first half of 2026, the domestic production of recycled aluminum will be about 7.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, accounting for 22% of the total aluminum supply. In terms of high-end products, the export proportion of high value added products such as aluminum for automotive lightweighting, aviation aluminum, and power battery aluminum foil continues to increase, and the export product structure is gradually optimized.
Domestic Competition: Dual Pressure of Capacity Expansion and Demand Differentiation
The domestic aluminum processing capacity continues to expand. In the first half of 2026, the new aluminum profile production capacity will be about 1.2 million tons per year, and the total production capacity will exceed 45 million tons per year, while the apparent consumption will be about 42 million tons per year. The pattern of overcapacity remains unchanged. The intensification of competition has led to continuous pressure on processing fees. The processing fee for ordinary building aluminum profiles has dropped to about 2500~3000 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 40% from the high point in 2020. The profit differentiation of enterprises is intensifying, and the market share of large enterprises with low carbon advantages, high end products, and high-quality customer structure continues to increase. The survival space of small and medium-sized processing enterprises is further compressed.
Aluminum profile export orders have rebounded for three consecutive months, indicating marginal improvement in external demand, with Southeast Asian infrastructure and North American electric vehicle supply chains being the main driving forces. But the full implementation of EU carbon tariffs is imminent, and low-carbon competitiveness will become a key variable determining the fate of export enterprises. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises need to accelerate their green and low-carbon transformation, optimize their export product structure, in order to stand undefeated in international competition.
Post time: Jul-16-2026